Table of Contents
What genre is Nassim Taleb?
The fifth book of his Incerto series—Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life—was published in February 2018. Taleb’s non-technical writing style has been described as mixing a narrative, often semi-autobiographical style with short philosophical tales and historical and scientific commentary.
Is Nassim Taleb a philosopher?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb can be hard to pin down. The trader turned mathematician turned philosopher loves all things volatile. His “black swan” concept helped explain – and some say, predict – the 2008 financial crisis.
Is log normal fat-tailed?
The class of fat-tailed distributions includes those whose tails decay like a power law, which is a common point of reference in their use in the scientific literature. However, fat-tailed distributions also include other slowly-decaying distributions, such as the log-normal.
What does green swan mean?
A “green swan” event is a climate event that is unexpected and rare, with far-reaching impacts. Combined with a more traditional financial crisis, a green swan event could theoretically threaten the stability of the global banking and insurance sector.
What is the difference between Bayesian and frequentist?
Bayesians, on the other hand, believe that not assigning prior probabilities is one of the biggest weaknesses of the frequentist approach. Since the Frequentists don’t believe in assigning prior probabilities, their estimate is based on the maximum likelihood point.
What does Taleb say about recognition?
On page xxiii, Taleb writes that “recognition can abe quite a pump.” Yes, but recall all those scientists whose lives were shortened by two years (on average) from frustration at not receiving the Nobel Prize!
What makes Bayesian inference work?
Just as a chicken is an egg’s way of making another egg, Bayesian inference is just a theory’s way of uncovering problems with can lead to a better theory. I firmly believe that what makes Bayesian inference really work is a willingness (if not eagerness) to check fit with data and abandon and improve models often.
Can Bayesian statistics solve the cancer research crisis?
For instance, a team at biotech company Amgen found that it could not replicate 47 out of the 53 cancer studies it had analyzed. Many experts believe this is because of the use of frequentist statistics and that the Bayesian approach is an alternative that could solve this crisis.